Uri attacked happened today and all Namo-rugna clan suddenly became foreign policy, defence strategy and
international diplomacy expert. The clan, which was claiming victory of Modi, on South China Sea, in Permanent
Court of Arbitration, Hague. And which was claiming that Modi is doing splendid
job, just hours before the attack, started advising Modi on what he is doing
wrong and what he should do next.
The purpose of writing this blog is not to slam those who do not
deserve slamming. This is just to tell them Calm the F down.
Change in Policy
Modi has turned India’s preserved
as passive policy and made it more open and aggressive. Modi has started behaving on international arena like being
military superpower (Which in absolute it is, but not in relative term) and
making bold policy moves that perceived as threat by the competing nations.
India delivers a definitive blow to China’s string of pearls
project, by helping Maitripala Sirisena
to become President of Srilanka. After
becoming President Sirisena cancel port
development agreement with China and entered similar agreement with India.
Srilanka is vital for String of Pearls project as without it all the other
bases around India are disconnected and vulnerable. The second blow India
deliver was by striking decade long Chabahar agreement with Iran and
Afghanistan. This was double blow for
China as well as Pakistan. China having being lost Srilanka already and
Pakistan loosing Afghanistan.
Ashraf Ghani, current president of
Afghanistan, was said to be pro Pakistan. But after India offered him bigger
piece of cake he not only turned pro India but also started signing in tune
with India asking Pakistan to take action against terrorist while his visit in
New Delhi earlier this week.
It is also said that India is currently in talks with Mongolia to develop
air base, in Mongolia to counter China.
China’s retaliation
This has pushed China which is losing financially due to India’s aggressive
stance, to retaliate with more politics and diplomacy.
First they blocked us at UN when we wanted a ban on Jaish e Mohammad and it’s chief Masood Azhar. Second they blocked us at NSG. When PM Modi
visited Switzerland it has promised us support at NSG. But in NSG they turn
their back on us and supported China’s call.
While these events were taking place on international diplomatic arena,
Pakistan wasn’t keeping quite either. First they attacked at Gurudaspur on 27th July 2015,
followed by Pathankot on 2nd
January 2016. Note here that Pathankot was
mere a week away from PM Modi’s visit
to Pakistani PM Nawaz Sharif on 25th
December 2015.
It was in response to these attacks India took side of Balochistan
and Gilgit-Baltistan. Both are extremely crucial to Gawadar port developed under
China Pakistan Economic corridor known as CPEC. IF Pakistan loose either of
them, CPEC will be useless. Not to mention USD 10.63 billion (INR 71.22 crore) worth
of investment China is doing in Pakistan. They are not losing Balochistan without making
India pay twice as much if not more. So don’t be fool to assume that this will
be last attack. This will one of many in the series to make India pay, And we
should be ready to pay the price if we want us to win. No victory has ever been
achieved without sacrifice.
Current Scenario
It is very easy to ask Indian government whether Manmohan or Modi to go war with Pakistan
but the truth is that we are not prepared. Neither financially nor militarily.
Our economy is still struggling with balance of payment and deficit
on current account. We are net importer. We import more than we export. We are
not able to satisfy needs of our citizens. Whether it comes to Toothpaste, soft
drinks, Hard drinks, Mobiles, TV washing Machine, Fridge all are imported.
India which has rich textile culture is importing Jeans from America. On the other hand even though we have reached to
Mars we cannot develop fully Indian Aeroplane, nor an Aircraft carrier. Tejas has been highly criticised for
using American Manufacturer of Jet engine over Indian Manufacturer in an aeroplane
which is supposed to be fully Indian Aeroplane. Remember Japan had more Aircraft
carrier in 1947 than United States of America and all were home made. Same with
Japanese fighter Mitsubishi Zero, which was superior
fighter plane compared to than British RAF aircraft Hawker Hurricane or USA’s Lockheed Lighting or Grumman Hellcat. What we learnt from this? NOTHING. We just entered
a new agreement with Japan for Buying Arms.
Stock piling arms will not make army stronger. But our experiment at
home with Tejas (Code name LCA) or
with Arjun MBT has ran into such a
disaster that rather than correcting them we choose to import. India has burnt
more than twice on time as well as resources on developing indigenous weaponry.
So if we enter into war tomorrow and if our suppliers from all over
the world stop supplying us with spare parts we will lose war in 14 days.
Indian Military is world’s third largest military with advance
equipment and hard training. But it is not able to rise as military superpower
because it has been contained in the region. While United States of America with
largest military and highest operate around the world, they have very peaceful
and cordial relationship with their neighbour. Whereas, India was forced to
fight 5 wars, in last 68-69 years. With unstable and troubling neighbours, both
of them are nuclear capable, Indian military is left with only one option, to
contain the situation. Because if we start taking more and more aggressive steps,
we may not able to control the outcome.
Way ahead
India should continue to do what we are doing till now. We are not
keeping quite over these years. We have provided fuel to Balochistan for 10
years before raising it in UN. Afghanistan is also looking to settle scores
with Pakistan regarding Taliban. With Afghanistan on our side Pakistan’s northern
border especially the disputed Durand line is burning for last few months.
Afghanistan is shelling Pakistani post on the border.
So before jumping to conclusion of war we must realised that we are
already fighting a cold war. Just because we don’t see it and just because it
is causing dozens of casualties than millions we should not be disappointed.
Post World War two United State of America had a President named D. Eisenhower. He was world war general,
and took steps to strike peace with Russia (Then USSR). He was losing
popularity because people thought he was giving in under pressure from Soviet
Primer Nikita Khurshchev. In reality he
authorised to ran several secret operations which actually gave him an edge
over Khurshchev during negotiations.
Soviet realised this after U-2 incident and broken away from talks.
Conclusion
In conclusion I would say these foreign policy issues are too
complex for any one of us to understand fully. Let the things run their own
course. We cannot control them as there are many factors involved. The only
thing in our hand is our own action. Every time china does something people
come up with don’t buy Chinese product. Message gets forwarded for few days and
then everyone wants cheap products. Remember First World War was fought for 4 years;
Second World War was fought for 6 years. If we cannot hold our nerves for few
hours and starts slamming government, we are surely not prepared for war.
