CPEC is China Pakistan Economic Corridor, was planned to be and economic development corridor in Tibet-Xinjiang and Pakistan occupied Balochistan around the port of Gwadar. Plan was mainly devised by Pakistani politician Nawaz Sharif during 1990s. Though Nawaz was Prime Minister of Pakistan the real power was in the hands of Military establishment. Which was promptly displayed after Kargil war. The Pakistani military establishment was never too comfortable with so called CPEC. Reason being the money that will flow due to economic activity in Pakistan Occupied Balochistan will lend financial power to Baloch people and will weaken the Pakistani occupation forces.
Hence plan was put on slow burner by the Military General cum President Pervez Musharraf. It wasn’t until civilian government got power back again, that CPEC was again brought to forefront. But its form was modified. Rather than making it into Economic Corridor as the name suggest, Military establishment had settled on making it only Transportation Corridor.
In current form of CPEC there will be 2 railway lines and road network that will connect Gwadar to Tibet.
The first sign of trouble arose when Chinese workers arrived in Pakistan. They not only brought their work ethics but also their cultural and food with them. That created tension in the area. Chinese workers were ruthless in demolishing houses and suppressing protest of people using Pakistani occupation forces. They were attacked at some places by the freedom seeking youth and resistance forces of Balochistan. Chinese also opened massage centers in Gwadar. It promptly called Fatwas from various fractions of Islamic Fundamentalist operating in Pakistan. Situation worsen to the level that Pakistani Military offered 2 security personnel per Chinese worker in Pakistan.
Second sign of trouble was slowing Chinese economy. When CPEC was envisioned in 1990s economy of china was growing by 10% per-annum. It continued to do so during 2000. But in latter half of 2010 Chinese economy started to slowing down. China was happy to share 1%-2% growth of it’s economy with Pakistan in 1990s. Which would have been huge for Pakistan during that period. But now when it’s own economy is slowing down and more jobs are required to be created, China is not willing to set up factories in Pakistan. It would rather set up production factories in Tibet and Xinjiang. And then use the Rail and road network to transport the goods to the sea.
Third which sealed the fate of economic corridor as transportation corridor was arrest of Bo XiLia . Bo XiLai was chinese commerce minister and was very popular among the business community around the world. He was efficient. But the one thing that went against him was, he was loyal to Jiang ZeMin. There are currently 2 Core Leaders alive in China. Jian ZeMin and Xi JinPing. Both are rivals. And Leader of China currently is Xi JinPing. Bo XiLai rather effecient minister is now rotting in jail under corruption charges just because he is loyal to Jiang. In form of Bo china lost it’s ability to make this corridor work.
Not that China cared about it much. Especially when economy started to slow down. China wisely turned the CPEC into it’s more ambitious project of One Belt- One Road. Under which China is planning to improve infrastructure and connectivity so it’s products and be transported to Central Asia and Eastern Europe.
Nawaz Sharif who finds himself as Prime Minister of Pakistan again in 2013 realize what is happening. The CPEC in it’s current form is useless to civilian government in Pakistan. It will not create job nor will generate revenue. At max it will earn some rent in form of rail and road network. Though Pakistani military establishment understand that Chinese presence in form of People's Liberation Army on Pakistani soil and People's Liberation Army Navy in Pakistani waters will weaken it’s position in the area, they are too busy counting their fat pay cheques.
This leaves Pakistani civilan leader Nawaz Sharif in dilemma. Accepting CPEC as it is will turn Pakistan into colony of China. And refusing it will be throwing away any hope for economic development for next few decades. Not to mention fear of another revolt from Military Establishment.
China due to slowing of it’s economy is not willing to even think of any investment in Pakistan. So hopes of Pakistan are now pinned on the world’s fastest growing economy India. Nawaz Sharif used all his influence in persuading China to let India invest in Pakistan. But sadly for him, he does not enjoy such influence at home.
During 1990s Pakistan also had plan of IPI-Pipeline. An oil pipeline from Iran-Balochistan-Pakistan and into India. It would have ensured fast and cheap supply of oil from Iran to India. It would have saved millions of dollars on transportation of Oil and natural gas from sea. Also availability would have been constant. There was only one flaw though.
Pakistan was not ready for any sort of economic co-operation. It wanted India to build the pipeline from it’s own money. And pay Pakistan the rent charges. When delegation from India asked for discussion to be conducted on business investment, their request were denied.
Unwillingness of Pakistan to conduct business with India peacefully is evident from the fact that India has given Pakistan Most Favoured Nation (MFN) status in 1996 but Pakistan is yet to reciprocate.
Pakistani Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif is looking a way to make India invest in Pakistan. He has traveled great length from attending Prime Minister Modi’s swearing ceremony, presenting him saree for his mother to inviting him on his daughter’s wedding.
But words of a Prime Minister who’s notification could be refuted by Military Establishment over twitter are as hollow & short lived as bubble. Any development brought in by China Pakistan Transportation Corridor will end up freeing Balochistan from undeveloped Pakistan.
