Friday, 19 July 2024

ideal income tax act

The ideal income tax act we all want:-

1.The preamble must be amended to say “Income tax is income tax is income tax which is tax on income.” Today Income tax has several taxes under it’s ambit which are not related to income, famous examples are TDS, STT etc. infamous examples from Chidambaram era are Banking Cash Transaction Tax and Fringe Benefit Tax. Both were rolled back after stiff resistance.

2.Salary deduction must be inflation linked and not to be left at will and whimsy of politicians.

3.Entire House Property section needs to be deleted. That can be easily subsumed under “Income from Other Sources”. Subletting of House Property is already charged under this section. It is not government’s business to lend heling hand to builder community. Allow total interest payment as deduction at the time of sale of Property with indexation. This separate head of income leads to unnecessary complication.

4.Do away with all additional deductions from Income from Business/Profession section. Deduction should not exceed 100% of cash spent. If Government want to incentivize give PLI scheme. Do not burden Income Tax and in turn department of Revenue with your Economic agenda.

5.Do away with requirement of Tax audit for those business who’s  Sales and Purchases reconcile more than 90% with GST return. If business is honestly disclosing it’s income and expenses there is no need for separate audit. Especially after E-invoicing rule applicable.

6.Do away STT immediately. STT was introduced saying there will be no LTCG. Government has already walked back on it’s promise. It is now time to roll back the tax. Government now has data on all the sale and purchases done by the PAN. Pre-filled forms now comes with auto-filled LTCG. The STT makes no sense anymore.

7.Do away with Concessional rate for STCG/LTCG. It is not only GST which is in dire need of rate rationalization. Income Tax too need this.

8.Do away with entire Chapter VI-A. This entire chapter was inserted by an amendment. It is not government’s job let alone of department of revenue to channelize investments of the assesses. Let people invest in which ever instrument paying higher return.

9.Do away with all the MAT/AMT taxes which depends on P&L drawn not in compliance with Income Tax but with accounting standards. If implemented strictly thew point 4 will take care most of it any way.

10.Do away with dividing individual assesses in class based on Age like Senior Citizen, super senior citizen or based on gender like male and female. All individual assess must have same slab structure based on income, not based on gender or age. If you deem age important factor give indexation.

11.Make a form for advance tax and make advance tax paying assesses to upload the form before paying tax. Carry out scrutiny electronically to check assesses are paying requisite amount of tax.

12.Do away with different slab of income. Keep one basic exemption limit common for every assesses. Keep Basic exemption limit high like 25 Lakhs. Keep one tax slab for super Rich like 10 CR.

13.Do away with Section 10 of exempt income. This will bring more income to tax net which will help to exceed 25 Lakhs slab limit.

14.Do away with different slab of tax. Keep maximum 2 tax slab not higher than 1/6th or 16.66%

15.Even though few things are in new tax regime we need to expedite the process.

16.Give honour to Super Rich tax payers to have a Road, Bridge, Railway Station, institute named after them. Give them 5 attempts at naming something in the locality.

Sunday, 7 July 2024

The Covid-19 SAGA from the Bharatiya Prospective.

India is pretty isolated from China via Himalayas physically and by Chinese firewall virtually. News about China arrives via western media into India. But the first ever covid-19 case, it was called novel coronavirus back then, arrived directly from People’s Republic. Student returning from China in January 2020 brought this exotic oriental decease to India.

The game was on. Fear spread in the society was clearly visible in low travel, reduced outing, empty cinema halls etc. Even Railway and Air Line authorities were issuing advisories to discourage travel. While continuing with the fear Psy-op 24 by 7, sporadically India bashing was also added to the mix.

The Hindu went as far as to call Covid as Indian Virus.

While India prepared for the battle with first wave of covid. PM Modi gave call for Janata Curfew. And subsequently total lock down on 24th march 2020.

Also Rohingyas were captured from Bihar. Any one remember Tablighi Jamat and it’s maulana Saad?

The game proceeded to the next stage. It was supposed to ran on two wheels. Death and Vaccination. Both were supposed to run side by side. It was similar to Operation Lockstep of Rockefeller Foundation mentioned in their Annual Report of 2010, a decade ago.

Death was to be provided by India and vaccine by the west. Soon India bashing moved to another level. The entire Indian population was wiped out of existence in fancy articles of western expert’s wet dreams.

But India held on and moved forward as much as it could. India’s approach was three prone. First was sound fiscal policy. Indian government paid interest on late payment for all borrowers for amount below Rs. 25.00 Lakhs (US$ 33,157/-). That not only helped poor but also banks. Today in 2024 India is the only reliable economy with strong balance sheets for the banks.

Second was providing free ration to poor. So they wont starve to death. This took out the one wheel of death from the plan.

Third was the home-made vaccine.

Very early the media was promoting about vaccine. No one was asking for medicine. They say only vaccine could save us. First vaccine was from Pfizer. But it was from Astra-Zeneca which complicated things. Astra-Zeneca vaccine was researched at an Oxford lab to which heavy donation was received from Indian Businessman Mr. Cyrus Poonawalla. Oxford was bound by an agreement to share research with Serum Institute of India. The first person who stepped out in the open was Bill Gates. He openly and clearly sated his position that vaccine formula should not be shared with India.

But Oxford unlike for any britisher lived upto the contract and did share the formula with Serum Institute of India. It was based on Active Pharmaceutical Ingredient (API), or input in layman’s term, which are produced in United States. So obviously next step was to prevent India from accessing raw material input for the vaccine.

Only after much deliberation US President Joe Biden lifted his export ban to India. But it was not over. The Indian vaccine deemed to be sub-par and vaccinated persons were denied entry into UK.

But the problem was never the Covi-Shield made from Oxford Formula. The real problem came from Co-vaccine Indian formula, Indian Manufacturing and Indian export. There was nothing west could do about it. And India exported it’s vaccines to 96 countries under Vaccine Maitri.

India broke the second wheel of Vaccine export as well. So something had to be done.

During the second wave attempt were made to make up the lost ground on deaths and also halt the vaccine exports. That wave could have run for week and India would have been pushed into lock down again. All politicians started openly lobbying for Pfizer vaccine. Poster were put with question to PM Modi as to why vaccine of our children were exported?

But India did something nobody eve uttered a word about. Vaccine was never Modi’s Primary focus. India was creating something none suspected. India created Covid-19 MEDICINE. And from very unlikely source. Defense Research and Development Organization, or DRDO for short, is an organization which primarily develops tanks and helicopters and Airplanes suddenly, out of nowhere, came out with Covid-19 drug. And second wave stopped, instantly. Along with all the Greek alphabet variants vanishing in thin air.

Since the date DRDO brought out Covid-19 drug/medicine on 8th of May 2021 the Covid-19 has not resurfaced anywhere, in India as well as in west. All those dangerous variants Delta, Omicron, Deltacron were never found any mention again, ever!

Only country to see Covid-19 wave post India developing the drug was China. And not both Chinas but only People’s Republic of China.

India was getting out of hand. She needed to be warned. There is a known decease in cattle called lumpy skin decease. It wasn’t new. What was new was it spread like wild fire. And it only killed cows of Indian stock not foreign/jersey cows. It suddenly stopped after killing around 1 lakhs live stock. You will rarely find any mention of it as it was not allowed in media to talk about it. Things were so out of hands that state of emergency was declared. Mystery of vanishing of lumpy virus is bigger than Covid-19 outbreak. After two years hardly anyone remembers.

In the 2021 Bond movie “No time to Die” the villain develops a virus which only affects his opponent and one else. It was DNA based virus.

A Virus that will affect a specific DNA and for rest it will be a mild cold or fever or flu. That’s how it spreads from one person to another till it reaches the intended person. I never beloved such virus affecting selective DNA could be develop.

That’s bring us to 3rd March 2024, when Bill Gates, The Great Vaccine Tsar himself, set foot on our soil since 2020.

The games afoot. It was not over. It was never over. May be tea break on the first day of the test match. Be prepared for difficult third session.

Sunday, 26 November 2023

Joining dots of 26/11 Fifteen years latter.

 

It’s been 15 years and wound of 26/11 is as fresh as 1993. Even if I or any of my near dear one wasn’t victim of attack the terror attack changes everything. Socially-economically and culturally.

Let me summarized bits and pieces I have gathered while going through internet and learning about the incidence. This is not research article but my way as Mumbaikar to find out the truth. Some gaps I have filled with supposition.

So here are the events in the chronological order.

David Coleman Headley made series of Visit to India September 2006, February 2007, September 2007, April 2008 and July 2008. During every visit he took videos at various places. In his visit to Pakistan in March 2008 David was asked to checkout Sea route for Mumbai. David did 2 more visits to Mumbai in April 2008 and in July 2008 (Source : https://www.justice.gov/archive/usao/iln/chicago/2009/pr1207_01a.pdf)

Around November 2007, Lashkar started training it’s terrorist for water operation noted by Technical Support Division branch of Military Intelligence. (Source : https://youtu.be/KS6ONT3i0m4?si=U4LjKpGQxsZcnuHl)

United State warns Research and Analytical Wing (R&AW) about terror threat to Mumbai and Taj Hotel. (Source : https://youtu.be/oKhCiq77GNw?si=kMu8TuHNZGG9ZJJ6)

J&K police provide Indian SIM cards for Terrorist. (Source : https://youtu.be/KS6ONT3i0m4?si=U4LjKpGQxsZcnuHl)

Rakesh Maria from Mumbai Police went to Taj to check for security arrangements on 25th November. Logistical support was provided by Indian Intelligence service. I am guessing most probably IB. (Source : https://youtu.be/oKhCiq77GNw?si=kMu8TuHNZGG9ZJJ6)

12 terrorist landed on shores of Mumbai. I could not find a link for this. But I distinctly this exact number repeated on television. Even though publicly accepted figure is 10 attackers.

Sabina Sehgal Saikia Deputy Editor for Times of India (Food) died during Taj attack. Her body was recovered 48 hours after the attack began. But last location on her phone was of Raigad. Link for this is provided. It is my belief that 2 terrorist escaped Mumbai and landed in Raigad with Sabina’s mobile. (Source : https://www.business-standard.com/article/opinion/sunil-sethi-a-friend-39-s-terror-and-disappearance-108112901039_1.html)

Muslim organizations took out rally in Dec 2008 against the terror attack. Rally arranged even before whole month was passed. Stating enemy of India are enemy of Muslim too. This is very strange as muslims categorizes India as Dar-ul-Harab or the House of War. This was the only rally on record by muslim organizations against terror attack.(Source : https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/city/mumbai/muslims-raise-united-voice-against-terror/articleshow/3805850.cms)

Rahul Gandhi in July 2009 made a statement that Hindu extremism is bigger concern. It was in response to American diplomat asking about terror activities by Lashkar. (Source : https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/india/Rahul-Gandhi-told-US-Hindu-extremists-are-a-bigger-threat-to-India/articleshow/7115703.cms)

Attack of 26/11 RSS ki Sajish book published in Mumbai in Dec 2009 one year after the attack. (Source : https://indianexpress.com/article/news-archive/web/rss-2611-digvijaya-flags-it-off-again-t)

 

Armed personal and tight security continued at Local Railway stations at Mumbai over a year. Link for this also been provided. (Source : : https://www.france24.com/en/20091126-security-fears-linger-one-year-after-mumbai-attacks)

My guess is the India security and intelligence agencies were trying to locate those 2 missing terrorist. And the Security to Mumbai railway stations was provided because they were still untraceable over 1 year.

While Mumbai still leaving under fear the propaganda still tried to push Hindu Terror theory. Even after Kasab was caught alive. David Headley was arrest. Telephonic conversations were recoded between terrorist and their Pakistani handlers. The attack was orchestrated to push forward Hindu Extremism narrative. Now that has failed, they just rebranded it to Hindutva Extremism narrative.

We have to give it to Hutatma (not Shahid, Shahid is someone who has die for Islam) to Hutatma Tukaram Ombale who caught Kasab alive. Otherwise the Kabal got almost succeeded in blaming Hindus for the attack.

As far as security agencies are concern I have to say this:-

Every Security agency TSD, IB, R&AW and also CIA thought they have infiltrated Lashkar. But Lashkar used each of them to take favour and use those resources to mount an attack. Every intelligence organization wanted to safeguard it’s source hence they did not share specific information with each other until it was too late.

TSD could not figure out in time why water training was important.

Mumbai police and R&AW thought threat to Taj was Bomb threat. They did not except that it was armed attack.

IB (my guess) which allowed logistic also did not expect armed attack. They thought it would be explosives like Bomb Blast of 93 and could be captured before next day morning by just tracking their movement.

 J&K police thought SIM cards were for phone calls but they actually used them for Skype calls. We could only pin point the calls next day when J&K police shared their information. And USA allowed India to listen in

Wednesday, 7 December 2022

Why Boycott Bollywood is astonishing.

The recent phenomenon of Boycott Bollywood is a step up in societal evolution. Attributing it to cancel culture will be a reductionist approach that will not help you to understand the monumental change that has occurred in the social psyche. The Boycott Bollywood is a mere expression of that change.

 1.       Origin of the moment.

The public was dissatisfied with Bollywood for decades. Indira Gandhi once went to the extent of banning the film 'Aandhi' because the lead female had a similar hairstyle matching her. In not so recent past Amir Khan went to Jantar Mantar to promote his film ‘Rang De Basanti’ based on revolutionary Delhi University Students. At that time Medha Patkar was agitating at Jantar Mantar against Narmada Dam. It was her last ditch effort to stop the construction. This drew a reaction in Gujrath. The cinema halls in the entire state boycott the film. But it was the last week of the film so it didn’t matter much. The next Amir Khan film was not so lucky. It was Amir Khan’s first film with Yash Raj Studio which was earlier engaged solely with Shah Ruk Khan. The film was 'Fanna'. It was never released in Gujarat. All cinema halls boycotted it. YRF (Yash Raj Films) incurred a financial loss. In Maharashtra Shiv Sena tried to stop the exhibition of SRK starter My Name is Khan.

Controversies were also a regular hurdle in Film distribution and exhibition. 'Bombay' based on Mumbai Riots of 1991 was delayed due to objections from the Hindu as well as Muslim sides. Countless films faced trouble at that stage and for various reasons.

Public discontent was released every now and then in such a manner and then business go on as usual. But all the pressure was not released. What was left behind was kept on building and building. And it exploded at the moment of Sushant Singh Rajput’s case. SSR’s death was not the only factor but the tipping point. I tried to summarize the factors below

A.      Unhealthythy lifestyle.

It is not only about maintaining a particular body shape but about substance abuse. This point was well covered in the Madhur Bhandarkar and Priyanka Chopra & Kangana Ranaut starrer 'Fashion'. Not only substance abuse but its blatant propagation shocked any conscious middle-class mind which was the main consumer base of Hindi Films. A society with such high morals that, even cigarette smoking is considered sinful, even though a primitive form called Bidi existed in India for hundreds of years. In such a society use of psychedelics, hallucinogens and narcotics would not only be looked down upon but will be actively resisted. This was a miscalculation on the part of the industry. They didn’t realize that it was unacceptable to the Indian moviegoer public. It would have slipped under the radar in the pre-social media era. But now just one photograph of Amitabh Bachchan’s daughter will circulate time and again.

 

B.      Arrogance of Elite

Apart from substance abuse social media also helped to break the barrier the star had with fans. Earlier fans used to stand hours and hours outside the bungalow of Rajesh Khanna or Amitabh Bachchan to get their one glimpse. Now Social media can bring them to your house live where you can react to them and ask questions. It was then the public realize the elitism that had set in the industry. Captured in a scene of the 2009 movie 'Luck by chance' the producer feels delighted when he hears the news that an incidence of stabbing had occurred in the ticket queue of his film. Whether it was Amir Khan’s preaching show Satyameva Jayate or Jaya Bachchan’s several remarks over many years put out the arrogance of these so-called social elites for public review. And the public didn’t like it any bit. The sense of entitlement is never appreciated in Indian civilization.

 

C.      Detach from the reality

It was also noticed that Bollywood celebrities were detached from the reality of the common man. Even though the disordered existed since the 1970s, it became more and more pronounced as star kids started entering the film industry in the 1990s and then almost blocked the path for outsiders in the 2010s. The public noticed that these celebrities have opinions about the politics of the US of A but not of India. And how we can forget the placard drama at the time and ONLY at the time of Hathras. The rest of the time you may not know on which planet these guys and girls are. The selective outrage and selective amnesia were becoming apparent day by day. This detachment was on full display when Tapasee Pannu's 'Do Bara' was released. During an interview, the director Anurag Kashyap and lead actress Tapasee Pannu both called for a Boycott of their film. They thought of it as a joke. This is how detached they were from reality.

 

D.      Immoral behavior

The heroes and heroines who were appearing on the silver screen doing heroic stuff and holding the highest moral values were in reality not even practicing minimum human decency. How can anyone forget, that it was Salman Khan’s driver, who was driving the car that night. Rather than looking up, the public started looking down on these stars, as they uncover more and more about them. From infidelity to murder the industry has done/seen all. And it was sublimely depicted in SRK’s Om Shanti Om.

 

E.       Changes in Product

Against the backdrop of all of this happening the industry was ignoring the core customer i.e. Indian Consumer and was more focused on capturing the foreign market. In the early 2000 movies were specifically made while keeping the NRI crowd in mind. The trend has shifted from a song location in the Alps mountain to a story plot in UK or USA. 'DDLJ' 1995 and 'Pardes' 1997 demonstrated the commercial viability of the formula, while films like 'Yaadein' 2001 'Kal Ho Na Ho' 2003 and 'Salam Namaste' 2005 made the entire plot revolve around NRIs. Such films were less and less appealing to Indian audiences because of the saturation of foreign scenery and lack of emotional connection.

 

F.       SSR’s Death

With all the above-mentioned problems scene was set (pun intended) for something to give. SSR’s unnatural death and the drama that followed broke the camel’s back. The drug angle, the video of SSR’s ex-girlfriend claiming to be a vasooli agent, inquiry into Deepika Padukone made the water murky, to say the least. The Jacqueline Fernandez money laundering case with imprisoned Sukesh was indicating a much deep-rooted rot. It was then the public decided to take matters into their own hands.

 

2.       Options

With the cheapest 4G rates in the entire world, Covid-19 lockdown, and a variety of OTT platforms to choose from Indians for the first time were thoroughly exposed to world cinema. The movies which were only played for a selected few in the film circle were available to every Indian. And every Indian who had some bit of knowledge of cinema was mesmerized by the production quality of Korean, Iranian, Turkish, Spanish, and German films and serials. When they compared those with Ekata Kapoor’s Sas Bahu dumb daily soap opera, they felt cheated. The Indian consumer is highly price-conscious. He/She always compares the price-to-reward ratio. What Indian consumers getting from his/her film industry was not a raw deal but a rotten deal. And there is no turnback from rot. You have to cut it off. That was when the Boycott of Bollywood really started. The consumer by then was well educated about the quality of products around the world. And that was the biggest threat. The industry even today fails to recognize that consumer taste has changed. OTT and regional cinema gave Hindi language consumers a choice, an option, and consumers exercised it in a blink of an eye.

 

3.       Difference between Boycott and Cancel culture.

The Boycott is not the same as Cancel. No one is preventing you from making your rotten movies. No one is absenting you from releasing your awful movies. The public is now done with you and it is not watching your rubbish movies anymore. What was lost was not the brand Amir Khan or brand Karan Johar. What was lost was trust, that this industry could deliver a meaningful product. The catastrophe was not that the public were not buying your product. The catastrophe was that the public were unwilling to watch your advertising. That is a boycott. There is no meaningful dialogue with the elite. The dialogue could only happen with peers. And peers are educated consumers who by now accustomed to watching Hollywood film with subtitles. When the public noticed shot by a shot copy of Forest Gump in LSC’s teaser, no one was excited to watch the trailer, let alone the film. The public is seriously done with you.

 

4.       Difference between Halal/Kosher and ISI Mark.

Halal/Kosher creates a sub-market within the existing market. Halal/Kosher is voluntary.  While ISI (Indian Standards Institution) is a basic standard that you must comply with to sell the product on the market. Such a standard is compulsory to maintain basic uniformity.

For the Hindi film industry, the language was such a standard. Even though the Southern film industry was up to and many times beyond the Hindi film industry's standard, the language barrier created a sub-market for language films. The weakening of the Hindi film industry played a vital role in breaking that barrier. Even though Bahubali’s success was a strong warning sign for the elite at the helm of affairs of the Hindi film industry they failed to recognize the change in consumer taste as well as failed to recognize the invasion from the south. It was a double blow, from the inside and the outside. Bahubali might have been shrugged off as one of, or a film that got hit because of period drama. But Pushpa was a downright masala film with the exact same formula which was perfected by the Hindi film industry during the heyday of Amitabh. And yet Pushpa was highest grossing with a visible cultural impact.

The sub-market was broken. There was no local film industry anymore. As it was advertised at the time of GST. One India One Market. The entire India was open for every film. The only requirement consumer demanded was that it should be as per Indian Standards.

 

5.       Film Math.

Movie making is a highly uncertain and very risky business. You do not know how the product will be at the end of production. And uncertain still that the public will like it. It is rare for anyone to deliver successful films one after the other. And that is why such filmmakers are praised and remembered. The problem that the boycott brought is that now films from such filmmakers are up for a toss. The response to Amir Khan’s lame remake of the beautiful film Forest Gump was an eye-opener. If Amir Khan could face a boycott then everyone could face a boycott. And that included Tapasee Pannu. Tapasee had back-to-back releases of 'Do Bara' – in June 2022 and 'Shabaash Mithu' – in July 2022. Both films put together could not gross equal to 'Lal Singh Chadda'. A Kannad language film 'Kantara' released in Sept 2022 went on to make a profit equivalent to the budget of all three films, earlier mentioned, put together. The Movie math today stands totally and completely broken. No actor no actress no director no nothing could guarantee you economical success at par with 'Kantara'. Only a film in line with Indian Standard can.

 

6.       Social Psyche.

This is the most important part every tom dick and harry went on missing in this whole saga. Elite point fingers at Kamal R Khan or Gems of Bollywood or someone else. Calls from these film critics to boycott Amir Khan’s LSC might explain why Lal Sing Chadda flopped. But no one to date has offered any credible explanation as to why 'Kantara' was such a huge success. The simple reason is public has moved on. Viewers are done with Urduwood. Trust is like glass, once broken it could not be put back. No matter, whatever tricks are played henceforth, the public does not want to watch halal-certified movies where Vijay is a non-believer when it comes to Hindu God becoming extremely superstitious about his 786 numbered batch.

India has changed. So is the public and the movie market. Those who are dinosaurs will die their death. 

Friday, 18 June 2021

MC BS or ET???

 If you do not get the title, then this write-up is probably not for you. Wrote in June-2021.

So last year I bought Moneycontrol.com subscription. I use it extensively. Moneycontrol.com was my go to site for news, portfolio tracking as well as stock research. My overall experience after a year of use is as follows.

Pros:-

1.       While tracking Equities, MF even FDs, Moneycontrol is

a.       Easy make portfolio, can even import data.

b.      Quick to add, edit, delete & view investment

c.       All info is readily available at a quick glance.

2.       For stock research

a.       Historical Data downloadable in Excel

b.      Visual representation of Share holding pattern, profit, sales are available.

c.       All information available one below the other, so accessing it, is a matter of scrolling

3.       News

a.       Daily news before market opening.

b.      Moneycontrol Pro Panorama news letter

c.       Daily technical recommendation.

4.       Others

a.       Moneycontrol subscription also came with an optional subscription to various technical and fundamental analysis.

 Cons:-

1.       News on Moneycontrol are not fewer than what available for free on other platforms like ET and Business Standard. Even after partnership with Financial Express, where you get articles from Fe, there wasn’t much of an improvement.

2.       Monecontrol Pro newsletter needs serious upgradation. That newsletter is dispatched on ‘one size fit for all’ methodology. It is just top 5 news with a paragraph of running commentary.

3.       Regarding research data, I think BSEInida.com offers a similar experience and for free. In some cases, I will rate BSEIndia higher than Monecontrol because of minimalistic graph and bar use. Rather than having graphical element in each and every aspect like Moneycontrol, BSEIndia keeps it restricted to numbers only.

4.       Also sometimes I found, when you need access to company’s result filling data, it is not available on Moneycontrol site. But BSEIndia gives separate links to Standalone and Consolidated results filling.

5.       Broker research which is available on google search sometimes does not appear in Moneycontrol sites.

Hence I finally decided to move on to a new site. Below is a price comparison of top Business newspapers of India.





1.       Financial Express does not have any paid subscription. At least I do not find it on their website. Also, I could not find portfolio or stock research tabs.

2.       Same thing with Mint. I do not think even with WSJ subscription Mint justifies price higher than ET.

3.       The Hindu Business Line seems beneficial only if bought along with other Hindu Group publications. Standalone I do not see any value to it.

4.       Finally, we come down to the usual suspects. I feel, Business Standard with 12 months free on 1 year subscription, is great value for money proposition.

5.       The 3 things that encourage me to go for ET are as follows

a.       Extensive stock report of 11 pages detailing projected turnover, technical score, and all the stuff. As research was one of the reasons I wanted the subscription I found those reports very helpful. One sample report is available for reading. ET also provides reports on a daily (technical) and weekly basis. They claim the
value of such reports is worth Rs. 1,499/-

b.      Additional subscription to OcuBay a documentary platform and Times Prime an entertainment platform.

c.       I, out of curiosity, checked ET app and found 20% discount. Which brought ET Rs. 2,000 pa.a. only Rs. 200/- more than Business Standard. Even though Business Standard is running 12+12 scheme I thought ET would be more than beneficial.

Hence I chose ET subscription.

Saturday, 20 March 2021

Should China be part of BRCIS?

1. BRICS as envisioned

In 2001, Chief Economist of Goldman Sachs Jim O’Neil coined a term BRIC. Four emerging economies on world map from Left to Right, Brazil Russia India & China. Latter South Africa was added to the list. All these countries were emerging economies, with large population. They also have large land mass available for expansion.

BRICS countries are very different — both in terms of their resources and in terms of their values and goals. The only thing they all have in common is, well, membership of BRICS. Brazil and India are democratic, China and Russia are not. Brazil and Russia export hydrocarbons, China and India are net importers. China and Russia are permanent members of the UN Security Council – the others are not. Structure of financial systems, levels of income, education, inequality, health challenges also differ substantially within BRICS. This is why it is very hard to speak with a unified voice and to co-ordinate action. The fact that BRICS have not really established anything tangible yet should not be a disappointment .

Even though BRIC was propose 2001 it remain as dormant idea till 2009. Most multi-lateral institutions were designed in the era when the West dominated the world. The US and Europe are over-represented in the IMF and the World Bank. Together with Japan, they control most regional development banks as well. But the Sub Prime crisis of United States in 2007-08 made G7 to realize that Global financial power has shifted, and broader participation from non OECD countries is must if they wanted to save global economy.

In this backdrop first BRIC summit happened in 2009 and South Africa joined next year in 2010. Also at the same time G20 was also rejuvenated which includes the BRICS nations.

2. Comparison of BRICS nations

Since 2009 every BRICS nations has progressed differently. Which you can see from the chart below. 

  

Since 2014 Russia and Brazil start to decline while India started rising up. But this would not be visible if you include China into the mix as depicted in chart below.

 

As you can see China was always stand out candidate in BRICS since it’s inception. In 2009 Chinese

economy was more than all the other BRICS nations combined. China in 2009 stood at 5088 Billion USD against all other BRICS were 4693 Billion USD. Today China alone is twice of all BRICS economies. China in 2019 is 14731 Billion USD and all other BRICS are 6760 Billion USD. 


3. Chinese dominance in world trade negotiations.

China is unusual fit in this group. China being member of BRICS might be justifiable 2 decades ago but now it is becoming more and more evident that China is becoming a nuisance to the cause of BRICS.

BRICS was formed with the view to face challenges collectively as a block of developing nations. Especially during the beginning of last decade Develop nations started putting environmental restrictions on developing nations and industries. But as we see in recent times, China has struck deal individually with US and EU. This has left other 4 BRICS nations at a disadvantage. Because, now the EU has an option if things doesn’t work out with any of the BRICS nation they can continue to work with China.

Chinese dominance in world trade make them immune to certain environmental restrictions. But that immunity is not available to Brazil, Russia Indian and South Africa. They get bitter end of the bargain. China rather than adding value to the collective taking advantage of the poor/emerging economy status.

4. Challenges for BRIS

Without China the BRIS would have mere 7% of world GDP. But excluding China BRIS has many more things in common to work together. All 4 BRIS nations has massive landmass. South Africa is 24th Largest while other 3 comes in top 10. They have humongous natural resources to be exploited, which are favourite target of environmentalist. They have too much to gain working together and too little to lose. Staying together is their biggest challenge.

While China has ongoing border disputes with Russia and India no BRIS nation shares a common border. That put strategic pressure at ease while discussing economic issues. Such thing could not be imagined between India and China. Just recently India has banned 100+ Chinese apps and designated them security risk. There is no such conflict of security interest among BRIS. In few cases they can complement each other. Brazil and Russia are net exporter of Hydrocarbon while India and South Africa are importer. India has largest IT and Pharma industry which can satisfy need of all BRIS nations. 

More so countries like Bangladesh, Indonesia, Argentina and Mexico has expressed strong interest in joining BRICS. Bangladesh was invited in 2020 summit.

It would be feasible to achieve goals only if economies with similar strength are grouped together. With China the balance is unfairly tilted.

It would be advantageous if China replaced with few other emerging economies.


Saturday, 27 February 2021

World Debt Crisis

 Let me accept in the very beginning that I am no economic expert. All I am doing is point out to the data points based on past events.

These are the top 19 countries controlling world’s 80 % of GDP. These are the countries which matter to our progress. Value of our money is derived from the functioning of these economies.

Sr.
No.

Name

GDP in Trillion

Percent

1

United States

20.807269

24.92

2

China

14.860775

17.80

3

Japan

4.91058

5.88

4

Germany

3.780553

4.53

5

United Kingdom

2.638296

3.16

6

India

2.592583

3.11

7

France

2.551451

3.06

8

Italy

1.848222

2.21

9

Canada

1.600264

1.92

10

South Korea

1.586786

1.90

11

Russia

1.464078

1.75

12

Brazil

1.363767

1.63

13

Australia

1.334688

1.60

14

Spain

1.247464

1.49

15

Indonesia

1.088768

1.30

16

Mexico

1.040372

1.25

17

Netherlands

0.886339

1.06

18

Switzerland

0.707868

0.85

19

Saudi Arabia

0.680897

0.82

 

Out of the above following are the 9 countries to which 80% of the world debt is owed.

Sr.

No.

Name

Debt

In Trillion

Percent

1

United States

21.465

32.42937

3

Japan

11.788

17.80933676

2

China

6.764

10.21906632

8

Italy

2.744

4.145641336

7

France

2.736

4.133554918

5

United Kingdom

2.455

3.709019489

4

Germany

2.438

3.683335851

6

India

1.851

2.796494939

12

Brazil

1.642

2.480737271

 

Out of the above following are the 5 countries having Debt to GDP ratio more than 100%

GDP is total good and services you produce in the country in a year. Debts are even though a long term obligation to be paid over the years is always compared to GDP.

Sr.
No.

Name

GDP in Trillion

Debt in Trillion

Debt to GDP

3

Japan

4.91058

11.788

240.0531

8

Italy

1.848222

2.744

148.467

12

Brazil

1.363767

1.642

120.4018

7

France

2.551451

2.736

107.2331

1

United States

20.807269

21.465

103.1611

 

Even though Venezuela, Greece, Portugal also has more than 100% debt to GDP their economies are not large enough to have ramifications for the entire world. Sure their financial crisis will have ripples on world banking and economic environment, but world can come out of it.

For the above mentioned 5 countries even if they perform at their usual efficiency they won’t be able to pay debt out of good manufactured and services produced in one year. Such countries can borrow today and transfer the obligation tomorrow. This is called debt trap where you keeping borrowing money to pay current debt. In turn your debt kept on increasing. Such debt eventually has to be paid.

The figures are pre-covid. You can expect drop in GDP numbers across the world. This is alarming situation. The financial world runs on trust. That debt will be served on time. And if some country default on payment the trust is broken. There have been instances of default. Such countries are punished severely by charging higher interest rates. But because those economies were small and their debt were insignificant banks could bare defaults.

The 5 countries listed above are major part of world economy. Default on their part will devastating for world economy. Entire world can go into recession.

Since last 6 months US 10 year benchmark Bond Yield has already increased .8%. In simple words it means US 10 Year bonds are getting cheaper. Bankers are selling them.

This is too early to call but if the trend continues, US might see a serious demand problem. World economy is dependent on US demand. If that fell, entire world can go into recession. Apart from USofA Japan, Italy, Brazil and France are also the economies we need to closely watch for.