Tuesday, 27 November 2018

Brexit - Deal or No Deal!


2 Years ago I was talking to my English friend. Well, he wasn’t English but Welsh. He hasn't decided what to vote, though people in his office decided to vote “Yes”. Majority of London voted No. And the rest of the country voted yes.
I saw many angry reactions from young Brits, who were angry because the vote of old people decided their future. It was them, who have to live with the decision made by old people.
I also read about post Brexit racism targeted towards migrants. I went through numerous reactions then. And they were as confused as my undecided Welsh friend. Even the vote was wafer thin margin.
In India, we discussed whether policy decision like this should be reduced to binary and then be left in the hands of the public to decide? Thankfully we have a constitution and it does not provide for such kind of adventure. So we are safe for now.
Britain, on the other hand, has been sliding since then. Cameron lost his position as PM. Snap Election made Theresa May weaker than earlier. And new Brexit deal made everyone unhappy.
I saw a video on YouTube titled “Bexit is teaching Britain itstrue place in the world
What was fascinating wasn't the video but the comment section.
Commonwealth champion like Nigel Farage, stated repeatedly that world will want to make deal with Britain. That wasn't false. But what Nigel and his friends assumed that the world will be making a favourable deal with Britain. This was an overestimation of expectation by a gigantic proportion.
This is what happens when people start living in the past. They will be brought to present brutally. People voting for Brexit thought (According to linked video) that they will bring back the glory days of the empire. That Commonwealth will be a bigger market than Europe.
Well, like many Canadians, Australians pointed out in the comments, UK left Commonwealth for EU in the 1970s. Rather than developing Commonwealth and helping former colonies, UK preferred Europe, and rightly so, because the trade happens geographically not historically. People will not trade with the UK just because they were their colonial masters. Only if Nigel and gang had taught anything about colonial history, they would know that colonies had enough of the atrocities and second-class treatment from Britain hence they strive for Independence. Not only India, but Australia, Canada, New Zealand also parted. But with the dream of glory days, Brits jumped from the European boat only to find them alone in a vast ocean of opportunities. The problem is they are not able to advantage of those opportunities now.
The British economy is weaker than ever and this is just beginning. The financial center which London boasts of itself will lose its important thick and fast as soon as Brexit comes into being. The only reason London was important because it was seen as a gateway to Europe. And it was in vital British interest to maintain it that way. But Brexit will force all those companies to move to Paris or Berlin.
Brexit is a reality now there is no turning back. What Britain needs most now is drop the imperial mindset, be humble and accept that at negotiating table they are not of more worth than Australia or South Africa. Yes, British Currency is strong, Yes the British Economy is big and exports are larger. But is not going to stay like that for long. The Sterling Pound had never returned to its pre-Brexit Level, and there is no reason why it should now.
It is amply clear that UK needs the world more than the world needs the UK. Do you think any country will be offering a balanced deal on a platter? Especially Commonwealth nations which were exploited by the empire? The UK will be grateful if a balanced deal is offered. And it rightly should be. The World is playing a far bigger game right now with trade war between US and China. Everyone is feeling the heat of Trump's America First policy. All the stock markets around the world are crashing. All the currencies are under pressure. Do you think the world has the patience for Britain?
Britain needs to accept the reality that in the new millennium they are and will be treated like any other country of the world. And at negotiating table they will be treated as a Non-EU member state in 'need' of a deal. The World will not be rushing to the UK to offer a deal, the UK needs to please the world by offering it first.

No comments: