Timing of Abrogation of 370

India in last 70 years of existence never ever had initiative on Kashmir issue.

In 1947 Pakistan sent the army, hence Maharaja approached to India, only then India sent its military.

In 1965 Pakistan started “Operation Gibraltar” They had natural advantage in Kashmir, so to counter their strong position in Kashmir we crossed international border in Punjab sector.

In 1990, when atrocities were inflicted on Hindu minority by Pakistani backed Muslim separatist groups. It is only recorded event in history when, people became refugee in their own country.

In 1999, Pakistan initiated the Kargil conflict and we end up having to fight for whatever was ours.

But things are drastically different this time. This time India has initiative. And Pakistanis are searching for answers. Everything seems to be stacked against them. Let us start with India and move to the world stage.

On 1^st August, the parliament passed the Triple Talaq bill. BJP led NDA pulled this magnificent victory even after lacking clear majority in Rajyasabha (The Upper House). This gave the ruling party the confidence for taking bolder steps.

Just 7 days after that, India brought the recommendation from President to repeal Article 370 along with 35A. Not only that, but State of Jammu and Kashmir is also broke into 2 Union Territories. But it was well choreographed. First additional forces were sent in. Items like satellite telephones, tear gas canister were stocked to be prepared for every possible situation. Only then the bill was introduced.

Initial reaction of opposition in India as well as across the border was that of disbelief. Pakistani establishment was thoroughly unprepared to face the change in the status quo and that of such magnitude. Everyone knew what stand BJP have on the article 370. PM Modi also made a poll promise about it. But the timing is very important.

Lets us see why this timing is crucial country by country.

Pakistan (Before 370) :- Pakistani PM Imran Khan just completed his visit to United States. Pakistani establishment were on high horse because Trump said he is ready to mediate between India and Pakistan. This was painted as diplomatic victory of Pakistan.

Another issue Pakistan gloating about was that of US withdrawal from Afghanistan. Pakistani establishment used terrorist in Kashmir after withdrawal of USSR in 1990. They were hoping to do the same after withdrawal of US. For them “Kashmir Banyega Pakistan” will be coming true in few years.

So not that Pakistani establishment were sleeping but they were actively ignoring signs leading to abrogation of 370. Journalist could clearly see what renowned ISI couldn’t. If India would have waited for few more weeks, the euphoria would have died down and ISI could have seen the big picture.

China :- Pakistan has all whether friend called China.  But as of this date China itself is handling, and handling it very badly the 9^th week of Hong Kong protest. The Airport was shut down, millions of people protesting every week end. China right now is in no position to lend Pakistan any sort of help. All the resources Chinese have are concentrated on keeping Hong Kong protest out of news and preventing any diplomatic pressure from western countries. So you will not be surprised that the only protest china did was not about Kashmir but about Aksai Chin we showed in our map. They are not interested in Kashmir. Shah Mahmood Qureshi returned empty handed from China. Timing is so important in the case of China. China within few weeks would crush the Hong Kong protest and then it would be in position to pressurised India. But right now China could not do anything.

United Kingdom :- United Kingdom is more or less a spent force in today’s world. And they are neck deep in their own Brexit mess. They had to choose new Prime minster because earlier PM, Theresa May lost the confidence of her own party members. So you can imagine what response such a country could offer. And even if it did, nobody would listen. Only response till now was a tweet from Leader of opposition Jeremy Corbin. And some propaganda work by BBC. But on diplomatic front, Pakistan got ice cold response. Brexit is such a big event that will affect would economy. Right now UK could not afford to divert it’s attention from Brexit which is going on for 2 years. So in this case also timing os in India’s favour.

Russia :- USSR was India’s close ally. It provided India with weapons and other military hardware. Also Russian Submarine in Indian Ocean stopped American 7^th fleet from attacking India in 1971. As India getting closer and closer to USA, Pakistan tried to take India’s place with Russia. But Russia completely ignored Pakistan when it stated that “India has right to amend the constitution”. Russia’s support to India might not be surprised to people who know India is buying S-400 missile defence system, even after formal protest recoded by America. The amount of deal is around 5 Billion USD. This is the same amount Pakistan is begging for bailout from IMF.

France :- Another permanent member of Security Council is France. I didn’t came across any statement by French government till now. The French News channel France 24 has Anti-India propaganda running with tile story like “Modi’s Shock on Kashmir threatens India’s standing at world stage” But French are also in no position to protest. Just like China, France also witnessing Yellow Vest Protest which are going on since last November 2018 and still counting. Also like Russia, France also supplies military hardware to India. Before Rafale Jet India bought Mirage jet. Mirage were used in surgical strike 2.0 Rafael is an advance version of Mirage. Apart from Jets India is also buying Scorpion submarines from France. So French are not interested in losing billion dollar business over Kashmir Issue.

United States of America :- The last permanent member of Security Council on this list is The United States. When Pakistan got hold of the situation, that it has been completely isolated, the only thing it could do was to ask USA to intervene. Pakistan also had leverage over USA. Pakistan agreed to mediate between USA and Taliban to give American honourable exit from Afghanistan. If Americans were not ready to help, Pakistan will not mediate between USA and Taliban. Americans reacted by saying that Pakistan should keep calm and should not encourage rogue elements. This was clear vindication of India’s position.

If you see the response of all UNSC permanent members, there is no diplomatic pressure on India, while Russia and USA stood by India’s side.

But this only gets better from here.

United Arab Emirates :- UAE, a Muslim nation which had lent a helping hand to Pakistan several times, also said Kashmir is internal matter of India. Nothing can be more embarrassing for Pakistani diplomat. They count on support of their Muslims brothers (Umma) in every situation. And by count I mean “assume”. That is why Pakistani dream shattered when they realized that even Muslim countries are on the side of India.

Saudi Arabia :- Unlike UAE, Saudi Arabia has special relationship with Pakistan. It is said that Saudi Arabia funded Pakistani nuclear bomb. Also Pakistani army is deployed in Saudi Arabia. So you can understand how Pakistani would have felt when Saudi Arabia refused to take Pakistan’s side and ask it to maintain peace in Kashmir. Once these most prominent Muslim countries took India’s side it is not of much value what OIC says.

Afghan Taliban :- The most surprising reaction came from Taliban. Currently Taliban are negotiating a deal with Trump’s USA for withdrawal from Afghanistan. It is no surprise that Taliban are trained and funded by Pakistan. India has no mean to meet or influence them. But even Taliban warned Pakistan. After Pakistan threaten to pull out of mediation between Taliban and USA, spokesperson of Taliban said “Linking the issue of Kashmir with that of Afghanistan by some parties will not aid in improving crisis on hand.” All plans of Pakistan to use Taliban in Kashmir after the withdrawal of USA went for the toss after the remark from spoke person of Taliban. Taliban also called for peace between two countries.

Pakistan (Post 370) :- Pakistan called for special joint session of parliament to discuss the issue. Pakistani PM Imran Khan did not attend the session till the meeting of Core Commanders of Pakistani Army gets over. It is clear his position was completely dependent on position taken by military. He made a speech and equated Modi ji with Hitler and RSS with Nazi. But in the same speech he also made a complaint. He said, that members of his parliament criticized him, but did not gave him solution. And clearly Pakistan is in such a fix that it could not have a solution. Pakistan tried everything and got shun by almost all the countries. Now Pakistan’s only hope is uprising in India. But all the terrorist activities in Kashmir were Pakistan funded. And Pakistan is facing serious sanctions from FATF (Financial Action Task Force). Pakistan is currently under grey list review is coming up in next few months. If it is seen that Pakistan funded Kashmiri terrorist it would be end of Pakistan’s economy. So even though Pakistan so desperately wants to fund the terrorist, it’s hands are tied. Till Pakistan get itself out of grey list, India would fix the terror network. Again Timing proved important. Few weeks late or early would be different story.

Looking at this you will not be surprised on the statement given by Pakistani foreign minister Shah Mahmood Qureshi that “P5 are not waiting for you with garlands in their hands.” Certainly no one is waiting for Pakistan. The World has moved on.

Another Pakistani minister Fawad Chaudhary went to tweet in Gurumukhi to call Sikhs not to accept posting in Kashmir. Pakistani establishment is feeling so helpless that it is now seeking help from communities within India.

This is not just good planning and execution on India’s part but also timing. When you see that at this moment every country is battling with their own problems, what India managed to achieve politically, militarily and diplomatically is beyond fabulous.