Is BJP preparing for Snap election?

Snap election is a term used in the western world for calling early election. This phenomenon is only possible in Parliamentary set up of democracy because government is formed by Members of Parliament. In Presidential Democracy like United States of America or France where President is Head of the State as well as Head of the Government there is no power to be consolidated. Because President of the country can choose minister as he wishes.

Recently in October 2017 Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe went for early election. It worked well for him. North Korean Nuclear Crisis looming over the head, Japanese voters chose to unite under Abe rather than supporting new party like Hope Party formed by Former Mayor of Tokyo.

But for Theresa May it was disaster. Election held in April 2017 to consolidate her power actually resulted in loss of Majority in the House of Common earlier. Theresa May lost 13 MPs while winning 317 seats falling just short of Clear Majority of 325.

Many Left and secular thinkers predicted that Modi may go for early Election. Why will BJP do that?

1. The very first reason why ruling party goes for early election is because they want to catch opposition unprepared. If you have a chance to surprise your opposition you will take it in any game. In election you need sufficient time to prepare for gathering of funds and men to fight the election. By calling early election ruling party just do not allow opposition enough time to prepare strategies or plan for fight. Opposition will have to rush in the battle field unprepared. While ruling party can secretly prepare for months. But after Gujrath Election, Congress which was down all the way, has found new hope and voice. They will give a good fight if election called now. Currently Congress is pumped up with Gujrath results while BJP is taking hit for GST and Budget.
2. GST was supposed to ease the inflation. The trickledown effect is yet not seen on scale which was expected. GST yet not became a settled law. There are many provisions which required being iron out. So GST will be risky proposition for government when people are actually not feeling the benefit. And for early election it will be much more risky.
3. People also points out the Farmer centric budget as an evidence that BJP is preparing for early election. BJP want new voters to join them. From past 3-4 years BJP has become confident that urban voter is staying with them even after Demo. Now they want to snatch few farmer/rural votes from opposition to retain their majority in next Loksabha. Though it seems a decent thought, Farmers are not going to feel the benefit of government's scheme in this Rabbi/Winter season. Most of the farming in India is Kharip/Rain season based. So real benefit of the budget will be felt only at the end of Kharip season that is Oct-Nov. There are several things that can go wrong in 9 months from Budget till October 2018. Hence budget could be one factor but it could not be decisive factor for calling election.
4. Prime Minister Modi's speech on motion of thanks to the President’s Address in Loksabha on 07-Feb-18 was display of all around attack on Congress. His speech was purely political. Some pointed out that Modi has gone into election mode. People who have listened to the speech will notice constant background NAREBAZI from opposition. It may be this slogan shouting that would have put him in attacking mode. But he was going to say those words and present those facts none the less. May be he knew what to expect from congress. So he prepared for political speech all along. But I think it is worth considering.
5. BJP will like to throw the baggage of Shiv Sena, Akali, Paswan from the alliance. These supporters did not add much value to NDA. While Shiv Sena is playing roll of opposition in the state of Maharashtra, Akali and Paswan lost their power and hold on masses. BJP formed the government with former ally Nitish Kumar in Bihar. Ram Vilas Paswan and his Lok Janashakti Party could not help BJP in Bihar. While Akali gave congress it's first victory in Punjab. Recently TDP members also protested against government for not allowing special status to Andhra Pradesh. In all this turmoil it is understandable if BJP want early election to ease functioning of government.

Finally I feel, this is not the time for deciding on early election. Even if BJP dissolve Loksabha tomorrow (Which they will not, because Budget needs to be passed) Election commission could not arrange for election on such a short notice. It will take 3-4 months. That will push the election in June. It will not be possible to conduct election in rainy season. So whatever happen today election could not take place before September 2018.

But at the same time BJP as a political party will like to have option available in October 2018. Decision to go for early election or not will happen only in Sept-Oct 2018. But it will be beneficial for BJP to have options in hand. They are preparing for ‘it’, that is beyond doubt. BJP is a political machine which has perfected the art of winning election. Whether they actually decides for it and under what circumstances are to be seen.