World Debt Crisis

 Let me accept in the very beginning that I am no economic expert. All I am doing is point out to the data points based on past events.

These are the top 19 countries controlling world’s 80 % of GDP. These are the countries which matter to our progress. Value of our money is derived from the functioning of these economies.

Sr. No.	Name	GDP in Trillion	Percent
1	United States	20.807269	24.92
2	China	14.860775	17.80
3	Japan	4.91058	5.88
4	Germany	3.780553	4.53
5	United Kingdom	2.638296	3.16
6	India	2.592583	3.11
7	France	2.551451	3.06
8	Italy	1.848222	2.21
9	Canada	1.600264	1.92
10	South Korea	1.586786	1.90
11	Russia	1.464078	1.75
12	Brazil	1.363767	1.63
13	Australia	1.334688	1.60
14	Spain	1.247464	1.49
15	Indonesia	1.088768	1.30
16	Mexico	1.040372	1.25
17	Netherlands	0.886339	1.06
18	Switzerland	0.707868	0.85
19	Saudi Arabia	0.680897	0.82

 

Out of the above following are the 9 countries to which 80% of the world debt is owed.

Sr. No.	Name	Debt In Trillion	Percent
1	United States	21.465	32.42937
3	Japan	11.788	17.80933676
2	China	6.764	10.21906632
8	Italy	2.744	4.145641336
7	France	2.736	4.133554918
5	United Kingdom	2.455	3.709019489
4	Germany	2.438	3.683335851
6	India	1.851	2.796494939
12	Brazil	1.642	2.480737271

 

Out of the above following are the 5 countries having Debt to GDP ratio more than 100%

GDP is total good and services you produce in the country in a year. Debts are even though a long term obligation to be paid over the years is always compared to GDP.

Sr. No.	Name	GDP in Trillion	Debt in Trillion	Debt to GDP
3	Japan	4.91058	11.788	240.0531
8	Italy	1.848222	2.744	148.467
12	Brazil	1.363767	1.642	120.4018
7	France	2.551451	2.736	107.2331
1	United States	20.807269	21.465	103.1611

 

Even though Venezuela, Greece, Portugal also has more than 100% debt to GDP their economies are not large enough to have ramifications for the entire world. Sure their financial crisis will have ripples on world banking and economic environment, but world can come out of it.

For the above mentioned 5 countries even if they perform at their usual efficiency they won’t be able to pay debt out of good manufactured and services produced in one year. Such countries can borrow today and transfer the obligation tomorrow. This is called debt trap where you keeping borrowing money to pay current debt. In turn your debt kept on increasing. Such debt eventually has to be paid.

The figures are pre-covid. You can expect drop in GDP numbers across the world. This is alarming situation. The financial world runs on trust. That debt will be served on time. And if some country default on payment the trust is broken. There have been instances of default. Such countries are punished severely by charging higher interest rates. But because those economies were small and their debt were insignificant banks could bare defaults.

The 5 countries listed above are major part of world economy. Default on their part will devastating for world economy. Entire world can go into recession.

Since last 6 months US 10 year benchmark Bond Yield has already increased .8%. In simple words it means US 10 Year bonds are getting cheaper. Bankers are selling them.

This is too early to call but if the trend continues, US might see a serious demand problem. World economy is dependent on US demand. If that fell, entire world can go into recession. Apart from USofA Japan, Italy, Brazil and France are also the economies we need to closely watch for.

Why I am an “extremist” Hindu?

Let me confess in the very beginning, do not be fooled by the quotation marks. Yes I am an extremist Hindu. Plain and simple. Extremist in very sense the left-liberal media would paint me to be. I say yes to that. Without having any remorse or guilt. I am an extremist Hindu. I am happy that Ram Mandir has come up on that site where once Babari mosque stood. This is a moment of pride to me. And if that makes me extremist then I would love to be one.

Things weren’t like this always. I remember when was very young, someone asked me “Do you eat meat?” And I said “Yes.” And the person astonishingly said “But you are a Brahmin”. I was never raised in a household where religion was taught or gods were worshiped.

I also remember I went to RSS Shakha. I went for roughly a month or so. It wasn’t very attractive for me. My life was like any other boy in India. I stayed away from all the influence of Right wing, Hindu extremist till I get matured.

It was during my college days when I started reading the news, reading history, analysing the events happening around me. Two big events took place during my college years that shook the world and India as well.

First was attack of 9/11. Al Qaeda carried out the attack. Osama Bin Laden claimed responsibility on television. That gave Gorge W Bush Jr. to carry out attack on Afghanistan. Muslims latter came up with many conspiracy theories about how attack was carried out by American establishment itself. I did went through those theories and I feel some questions needs to be answered. But I have never seen many Muslims showing remorse due to death of the innocents in the twin tower attack. They claim it was done by American establishment at the same time celebrate the attackers as Mujahidin.

Second thing that shook Indian politics was Gujrath riots. Lot is written, said, filmed and talked about it. Years and years went into inquiry. Special inquiry/judicial inquiry was set up. Cases moved outside Gujrath. After all this deliberation and cases being fought tooth and nail till Supreme Court Naredra Modi was vindicated. But still today Narendra Modi is painted as villain of Gujrath. The world has moved on, but some people are have not outgrown 2002.

Things were moving on for me as well. I went to daavat to my Muslim friend’s house. His mother cooked for us yummy mutton biryani. We all friends sat around a round plate on a stand, and ate together. After the meal we were having discussion. One of his friend said “Have you heard the news that Maulana of Haj house arrested in scandal” He was clearly trying to see how we (Kafir) react. To which I said, “Even Shankaracharya of Kanchi was arrested, these things keep happening. People near to the god sometimes think they are above the law.”

I genuinely believed that to this date, that people who are near to the god start playing god. I must admit I came to know much latter that Shankaracharya of Kanchi was acquitted and on line news was published on page 8 of some newspapers. But remember when he was arrested. News ran for weeks, constantly. Like some pope was arrested. Shankaracharya does not command authority in the life of average Hindu like any Imam of Masjid or Padre of Church does in the life of their respective religion.

Over the years I started observing a pattern. Anything Islamic became secular, anything Christian became religious while anything Hindu became communal. These things even though were very subtle, but you could recognize them. Like Iftar party as a concrete example for you. I saw from 2004 to 2014 many prominent Indian politicians enjoying Iftar party. There were photographs with Film celebrities & leaders enjoying Iftar together. But have you heard lighting on Diwali done through government’s funds? Forget about government funds, we were denied basic necessity. I remember pick of load shedding in Maharashtra when there was electric supply during Ramzan month but during Diwali there was power outage.

Then there was long contested issue of Haj Subsidy. I was surprised, when Haj subsidy was equated with Amrnath Yatra. Haj happens in Saudi Arebia. Majority of money was spent in Saudi Arebia towards provision of tents, water and such other facility. Money flow from India to Saudi Arebia. Amarnath Yatra takes place entirely in our land. Each and every penny spent in spent in India. Money flows from Delhi to J&K. In what universe are they same? And all this happen under the constitutional frame work of Secular government. 

Every time every small thing made me realize that I am paying price to be Hindu in this nation. It is like jiziya of the modern age.

I was quietly observing all this. None of this was impacting my life drastically. Till it came to dark decade of UPA rule.

First minority appeasement policy of UPA that directly affected me and my family was 26/11 Mumbai attack happened in November 2008 of UPA-1 period. That ordeal went on for 3 full days. In the richest and busiest part of the town. Entire city was held hostage. I was following Pakistan very closely during those days. Because of the internet it was easy to watch Pakistani channels. On the night of 27th November 2008 some guy in red cap (Lal Topi) started saying that attack was done by Hindus. He based his claims on the sources from India and also started stating names of these guys. Even though we caught one terrorist alive.

In December of 2010 a book was launched by Aziz Burney with Mahesh Bhatt and Digvijay Sing titled “26/11 RSS ki Sajish” (26/11 RSS’s Conspiracy). Even after catching one terrorist alive, we were targeted for “Majority Terrorism”. This was Digvijay Sing’s exact words from that book launch. Please note the words. He is not saying RSS is guilty, he is not singling out any particular community. He is singling out majority of this country. Saying majority is doing terrorism.

2008 was also the same year when Col. Purohit, a serving army men was arrested and tortured. Sadhvi Pradnya was arrested. Both were kept in jail for 10 years and for what? For using them as a justification for new law.

If you weren’t aware in 2013 UPA-2 was bringing a law which stated that Majority of a locality will be guilty until proven innocent of any mob violence. It was called Communal Violence Bill. Under this law if there was any riot like it happened in Delhi, it would be presumed that Majority of that region will be guilty.

Things does not end here. An Oxford educated PM one rally during 2014 declared that “Muslims has first right on the resources of India”. This was his actual quote. I am a student of finance, and could understand basic economics. I have learned economic theories of Admin Smith and Dr. Marshal. But even without that you will be able to make that this makes no economic sense. Dr. Manmohan Sing has not retracted this statement yet. The justification that was put forth was “Muslims are poor and poor has preferential right hence Muslims has first right”. Can you see the religious hatred towards Hindus? If poor has first right just say poor has first right. You raise your right saying you are poor and claim your share on the basis of your religion. So the only way poor dalit, poor Adivasi could benefit from such nonsensical policy is by converting to Islam. And who would have paid taxes for those benefit? Majority of Hindus. Little I knew that this mind set, this superiority complex of Muslims grew with me. 

It was in late 1980s when I was just a toddler congress took a pro Muslim stand when things started changing. Remember Shah Bano case? That was pivotal moment in the political and social history of India. It was then the All India Muslim Personal Law Board AIMPLB proved it’s superiority over the Supreme Court of India.

Even today AIMPLB said in a tweet that they will built Ram Temple in Ayodya stating out right that they does not accept supremacy of Indian constitution and courts established by it. They did not agree in 1985 they do not agree in 2020.

I wasn’t a Hindu by birth either. I was born atheist forced extremist. Because there is no space left for an atheist or Hindu to be in this society. You can be Muslim or you can be a minority concentrated in your own locality, like Jains, Sikhs, Paresis or you can be extremist Hindu, a right winger a bhakt.

What choice do they left me with? I have to be extreme right because Muslims went extreme left. To balance the society I have to change my view and align it with extreme right. Otherwise the whole social structure will collapse. There won’t be any social justice left. A majority will always be persecuted until proven innocent. A poor lower cast Hindu tribal will be denied financial aid over a Muslim, because a great economist said so.

The hypocrisy, the bigotry the hate is appalling.

Yes I celebrated when Ram Temple was built by destroying Babri Masjid. And millions like me did the same. We were never extremist. You made us out of your hate for us. I never knew what word Kafir means when I sat with my Muslim friend on Daavat. I sure do now. I didn’t knew what Gazhwa E Hind is, what Sipah E Sahaba was or why my friend had a slate “Live like Ali die like Hussain”

Now I know. And now I know you. Don’t blame me for extremism. Look inward. 

Timing of Abrogation of 370

India in last 70 years of existence never ever had initiative on Kashmir issue.

In 1947 Pakistan sent the army, hence Maharaja approached to India, only then India sent its military.

In 1965 Pakistan started “Operation Gibraltar” They had natural advantage in Kashmir, so to counter their strong position in Kashmir we crossed international border in Punjab sector.

In 1990, when atrocities were inflicted on Hindu minority by Pakistani backed Muslim separatist groups. It is only recorded event in history when, people became refugee in their own country.

In 1999, Pakistan initiated the Kargil conflict and we end up having to fight for whatever was ours.

But things are drastically different this time. This time India has initiative. And Pakistanis are searching for answers. Everything seems to be stacked against them. Let us start with India and move to the world stage.

On 1^st August, the parliament passed the Triple Talaq bill. BJP led NDA pulled this magnificent victory even after lacking clear majority in Rajyasabha (The Upper House). This gave the ruling party the confidence for taking bolder steps.

Just 7 days after that, India brought the recommendation from President to repeal Article 370 along with 35A. Not only that, but State of Jammu and Kashmir is also broke into 2 Union Territories. But it was well choreographed. First additional forces were sent in. Items like satellite telephones, tear gas canister were stocked to be prepared for every possible situation. Only then the bill was introduced.

Initial reaction of opposition in India as well as across the border was that of disbelief. Pakistani establishment was thoroughly unprepared to face the change in the status quo and that of such magnitude. Everyone knew what stand BJP have on the article 370. PM Modi also made a poll promise about it. But the timing is very important.

Lets us see why this timing is crucial country by country.

Pakistan (Before 370) :- Pakistani PM Imran Khan just completed his visit to United States. Pakistani establishment were on high horse because Trump said he is ready to mediate between India and Pakistan. This was painted as diplomatic victory of Pakistan.

Another issue Pakistan gloating about was that of US withdrawal from Afghanistan. Pakistani establishment used terrorist in Kashmir after withdrawal of USSR in 1990. They were hoping to do the same after withdrawal of US. For them “Kashmir Banyega Pakistan” will be coming true in few years.

So not that Pakistani establishment were sleeping but they were actively ignoring signs leading to abrogation of 370. Journalist could clearly see what renowned ISI couldn’t. If India would have waited for few more weeks, the euphoria would have died down and ISI could have seen the big picture.

China :- Pakistan has all whether friend called China.  But as of this date China itself is handling, and handling it very badly the 9^th week of Hong Kong protest. The Airport was shut down, millions of people protesting every week end. China right now is in no position to lend Pakistan any sort of help. All the resources Chinese have are concentrated on keeping Hong Kong protest out of news and preventing any diplomatic pressure from western countries. So you will not be surprised that the only protest china did was not about Kashmir but about Aksai Chin we showed in our map. They are not interested in Kashmir. Shah Mahmood Qureshi returned empty handed from China. Timing is so important in the case of China. China within few weeks would crush the Hong Kong protest and then it would be in position to pressurised India. But right now China could not do anything.

United Kingdom :- United Kingdom is more or less a spent force in today’s world. And they are neck deep in their own Brexit mess. They had to choose new Prime minster because earlier PM, Theresa May lost the confidence of her own party members. So you can imagine what response such a country could offer. And even if it did, nobody would listen. Only response till now was a tweet from Leader of opposition Jeremy Corbin. And some propaganda work by BBC. But on diplomatic front, Pakistan got ice cold response. Brexit is such a big event that will affect would economy. Right now UK could not afford to divert it’s attention from Brexit which is going on for 2 years. So in this case also timing os in India’s favour.

Russia :- USSR was India’s close ally. It provided India with weapons and other military hardware. Also Russian Submarine in Indian Ocean stopped American 7^th fleet from attacking India in 1971. As India getting closer and closer to USA, Pakistan tried to take India’s place with Russia. But Russia completely ignored Pakistan when it stated that “India has right to amend the constitution”. Russia’s support to India might not be surprised to people who know India is buying S-400 missile defence system, even after formal protest recoded by America. The amount of deal is around 5 Billion USD. This is the same amount Pakistan is begging for bailout from IMF.

France :- Another permanent member of Security Council is France. I didn’t came across any statement by French government till now. The French News channel France 24 has Anti-India propaganda running with tile story like “Modi’s Shock on Kashmir threatens India’s standing at world stage” But French are also in no position to protest. Just like China, France also witnessing Yellow Vest Protest which are going on since last November 2018 and still counting. Also like Russia, France also supplies military hardware to India. Before Rafale Jet India bought Mirage jet. Mirage were used in surgical strike 2.0 Rafael is an advance version of Mirage. Apart from Jets India is also buying Scorpion submarines from France. So French are not interested in losing billion dollar business over Kashmir Issue.

United States of America :- The last permanent member of Security Council on this list is The United States. When Pakistan got hold of the situation, that it has been completely isolated, the only thing it could do was to ask USA to intervene. Pakistan also had leverage over USA. Pakistan agreed to mediate between USA and Taliban to give American honourable exit from Afghanistan. If Americans were not ready to help, Pakistan will not mediate between USA and Taliban. Americans reacted by saying that Pakistan should keep calm and should not encourage rogue elements. This was clear vindication of India’s position.

If you see the response of all UNSC permanent members, there is no diplomatic pressure on India, while Russia and USA stood by India’s side.

But this only gets better from here.

United Arab Emirates :- UAE, a Muslim nation which had lent a helping hand to Pakistan several times, also said Kashmir is internal matter of India. Nothing can be more embarrassing for Pakistani diplomat. They count on support of their Muslims brothers (Umma) in every situation. And by count I mean “assume”. That is why Pakistani dream shattered when they realized that even Muslim countries are on the side of India.

Saudi Arabia :- Unlike UAE, Saudi Arabia has special relationship with Pakistan. It is said that Saudi Arabia funded Pakistani nuclear bomb. Also Pakistani army is deployed in Saudi Arabia. So you can understand how Pakistani would have felt when Saudi Arabia refused to take Pakistan’s side and ask it to maintain peace in Kashmir. Once these most prominent Muslim countries took India’s side it is not of much value what OIC says.

Afghan Taliban :- The most surprising reaction came from Taliban. Currently Taliban are negotiating a deal with Trump’s USA for withdrawal from Afghanistan. It is no surprise that Taliban are trained and funded by Pakistan. India has no mean to meet or influence them. But even Taliban warned Pakistan. After Pakistan threaten to pull out of mediation between Taliban and USA, spokesperson of Taliban said “Linking the issue of Kashmir with that of Afghanistan by some parties will not aid in improving crisis on hand.” All plans of Pakistan to use Taliban in Kashmir after the withdrawal of USA went for the toss after the remark from spoke person of Taliban. Taliban also called for peace between two countries.

Pakistan (Post 370) :- Pakistan called for special joint session of parliament to discuss the issue. Pakistani PM Imran Khan did not attend the session till the meeting of Core Commanders of Pakistani Army gets over. It is clear his position was completely dependent on position taken by military. He made a speech and equated Modi ji with Hitler and RSS with Nazi. But in the same speech he also made a complaint. He said, that members of his parliament criticized him, but did not gave him solution. And clearly Pakistan is in such a fix that it could not have a solution. Pakistan tried everything and got shun by almost all the countries. Now Pakistan’s only hope is uprising in India. But all the terrorist activities in Kashmir were Pakistan funded. And Pakistan is facing serious sanctions from FATF (Financial Action Task Force). Pakistan is currently under grey list review is coming up in next few months. If it is seen that Pakistan funded Kashmiri terrorist it would be end of Pakistan’s economy. So even though Pakistan so desperately wants to fund the terrorist, it’s hands are tied. Till Pakistan get itself out of grey list, India would fix the terror network. Again Timing proved important. Few weeks late or early would be different story.

Looking at this you will not be surprised on the statement given by Pakistani foreign minister Shah Mahmood Qureshi that “P5 are not waiting for you with garlands in their hands.” Certainly no one is waiting for Pakistan. The World has moved on.

Another Pakistani minister Fawad Chaudhary went to tweet in Gurumukhi to call Sikhs not to accept posting in Kashmir. Pakistani establishment is feeling so helpless that it is now seeking help from communities within India.

This is not just good planning and execution on India’s part but also timing. When you see that at this moment every country is battling with their own problems, what India managed to achieve politically, militarily and diplomatically is beyond fabulous.