Is BJP preparing for Snap election?

Snap election is a term used in the western world for calling early election. This phenomenon is only possible in Parliamentary set up of democracy because government is formed by Members of Parliament. In Presidential Democracy like United States of America or France where President is Head of the State as well as Head of the Government there is no power to be consolidated. Because President of the country can choose minister as he wishes.

Recently in October 2017 Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe went for early election. It worked well for him. North Korean Nuclear Crisis looming over the head, Japanese voters chose to unite under Abe rather than supporting new party like Hope Party formed by Former Mayor of Tokyo.

But for Theresa May it was disaster. Election held in April 2017 to consolidate her power actually resulted in loss of Majority in the House of Common earlier. Theresa May lost 13 MPs while winning 317 seats falling just short of Clear Majority of 325.

Many Left and secular thinkers predicted that Modi may go for early Election. Why will BJP do that?

1. The very first reason why ruling party goes for early election is because they want to catch opposition unprepared. If you have a chance to surprise your opposition you will take it in any game. In election you need sufficient time to prepare for gathering of funds and men to fight the election. By calling early election ruling party just do not allow opposition enough time to prepare strategies or plan for fight. Opposition will have to rush in the battle field unprepared. While ruling party can secretly prepare for months. But after Gujrath Election, Congress which was down all the way, has found new hope and voice. They will give a good fight if election called now. Currently Congress is pumped up with Gujrath results while BJP is taking hit for GST and Budget.
2. GST was supposed to ease the inflation. The trickledown effect is yet not seen on scale which was expected. GST yet not became a settled law. There are many provisions which required being iron out. So GST will be risky proposition for government when people are actually not feeling the benefit. And for early election it will be much more risky.
3. People also points out the Farmer centric budget as an evidence that BJP is preparing for early election. BJP want new voters to join them. From past 3-4 years BJP has become confident that urban voter is staying with them even after Demo. Now they want to snatch few farmer/rural votes from opposition to retain their majority in next Loksabha. Though it seems a decent thought, Farmers are not going to feel the benefit of government's scheme in this Rabbi/Winter season. Most of the farming in India is Kharip/Rain season based. So real benefit of the budget will be felt only at the end of Kharip season that is Oct-Nov. There are several things that can go wrong in 9 months from Budget till October 2018. Hence budget could be one factor but it could not be decisive factor for calling election.
4. Prime Minister Modi's speech on motion of thanks to the President’s Address in Loksabha on 07-Feb-18 was display of all around attack on Congress. His speech was purely political. Some pointed out that Modi has gone into election mode. People who have listened to the speech will notice constant background NAREBAZI from opposition. It may be this slogan shouting that would have put him in attacking mode. But he was going to say those words and present those facts none the less. May be he knew what to expect from congress. So he prepared for political speech all along. But I think it is worth considering.
5. BJP will like to throw the baggage of Shiv Sena, Akali, Paswan from the alliance. These supporters did not add much value to NDA. While Shiv Sena is playing roll of opposition in the state of Maharashtra, Akali and Paswan lost their power and hold on masses. BJP formed the government with former ally Nitish Kumar in Bihar. Ram Vilas Paswan and his Lok Janashakti Party could not help BJP in Bihar. While Akali gave congress it's first victory in Punjab. Recently TDP members also protested against government for not allowing special status to Andhra Pradesh. In all this turmoil it is understandable if BJP want early election to ease functioning of government.

Finally I feel, this is not the time for deciding on early election. Even if BJP dissolve Loksabha tomorrow (Which they will not, because Budget needs to be passed) Election commission could not arrange for election on such a short notice. It will take 3-4 months. That will push the election in June. It will not be possible to conduct election in rainy season. So whatever happen today election could not take place before September 2018.

But at the same time BJP as a political party will like to have option available in October 2018. Decision to go for early election or not will happen only in Sept-Oct 2018. But it will be beneficial for BJP to have options in hand. They are preparing for ‘it’, that is beyond doubt. BJP is a political machine which has perfected the art of winning election. Whether they actually decides for it and under what circumstances are to be seen.

Indo-China (Doklam Issue)

Daily till Ajit Doval’s vist of BRICS nation to China. And since then once in 2 days, China state run media the Global Times has been issuing WAR threats to India.
The Doklam area under dispute is very sensitive issue for the India and it’s army. China is building Road in this remote area. India Army has since the beginning has taken firm stand against this road project. Even though China is building this road in it’s on territory according to Bidu map India has legitimate reason to oppose any such construction. 1st this road project is not far from India’s Siliguri corridor which is the narrow strip of land connecting North-East with rest of India. If China engages in road or any other sort of construction in the area it will directly affect India’s Military ability to protect it’s northeastern state. China always wanted a piece of India’s north eastern state. in Indo-China war of 1962 even after winning some part of India state Arunachal Pradesh China had to pull back it’s forces because there was no road to establish supply chain from Tibet. So if this time China build a road they might be able to hold on their position. And India will have hard time defending it’s states as well as dependent nation Bhutan.
During the cold war of 1962 Russia (then USSR) wanted to build a Missile base in Cuba. USA had launched extreme opposition to that plan. So much so that both countries were ready to go for war. Today China is arguing that whatever we do in our territory is our business. But at the same time opposing installation of US made THAAD in South Korea. Even though THAAD is aimed against threat of North Korea it will hamper Military capability of China. Hence India has same ground to oppose China for Road construction as China has to oppose South Korea.
If this conflict escalate will there be war?
China has army of 2.2 million standing. India has 1.4 million. But recently China has declared to reduce it’s army by 1 million. Ans savings made on salary will be spent on modernization and up-gradation of Military Machine. Recently speaking in a function of 70th PLA anniversary Chinese President said that “China need its army more than ever” This raises the doubts about preparedness of Chinese Military called PLA. The last battle faught by PLA was in 1979 against Vietnam. People’s Army of Vietnam was inferior in equipment and and lesser in numbers. But still it delivered a might blow to PLA. Hence even after 1 month since incidence first reported china has done nothing but issuing war threat from it’s news papers. China is constantly asking India to remove it’s soldiers from the position. What it really meaent is “Let us build our road”. And India is not ready to compromise. When Indian defense minister Arun Jaitley said “This is not India of 192” What he really meant was “We are not ready for compromise”.
Currently China is only testing preparedness of India. Even if China build the road it doesn’t mean there will be war in next decade. But this is just to test preparedness of Indian Army and Indian counselor in foreign embassies. Currently no country has openly supported China in this conflict. This is why China’s response is comparatively mild.
Some people are linking this issue with 19th National Congres of CCP to be conducted in November this year. But I think Xi is very well prepared for November and all set to be back in power. 

Why Pakistan wants India to Join CPEC?

CPEC is China Pakistan Economic Corridor, was planned to be and economic development corridor in Tibet-Xinjiang and Pakistan occupied Balochistan around the port of Gwadar. Plan was mainly devised by Pakistani politician Nawaz Sharif during 1990s. Though Nawaz was Prime Minister of Pakistan the real power was in the hands of Military establishment. Which was promptly displayed after Kargil war. The Pakistani military establishment was never too comfortable with so called CPEC. Reason being the money that will flow due to economic activity in Pakistan Occupied Balochistan will lend financial power to Baloch people and will weaken the Pakistani occupation forces.

Hence plan was put on slow burner by the Military General cum President Pervez Musharraf. It wasn’t until civilian government got power back again, that CPEC was again brought to forefront. But its form was modified. Rather than making it into Economic Corridor as the name suggest, Military establishment had settled on making it only Transportation Corridor.

In current form of CPEC there will be 2 railway lines and road network that will connect Gwadar to Tibet.

The first sign of trouble arose when Chinese workers arrived in Pakistan. They not only brought their work ethics but also their cultural and food with them. That created tension in the area. Chinese workers were ruthless in demolishing houses and suppressing protest of people using Pakistani occupation forces. They were attacked at some places by the freedom seeking youth and resistance forces of Balochistan. Chinese also opened massage centers in Gwadar. It promptly called Fatwas from various fractions of Islamic Fundamentalist operating in Pakistan. Situation worsen to the level that Pakistani Military offered 2 security personnel per Chinese worker in Pakistan.

Second sign of trouble was slowing Chinese economy. When CPEC was envisioned in 1990s economy of china was growing by 10% per-annum. It continued to do so during 2000. But in latter half of 2010 Chinese economy started to slowing down. China was happy to share 1%-2% growth of it’s economy with Pakistan in 1990s. Which would have been huge for Pakistan during that period. But now when it’s own economy is slowing down and more jobs are required to be created, China is not willing to set up factories in Pakistan. It would rather set up production factories in Tibet and Xinjiang. And then use the Rail and road network to transport the goods to the sea.

Third which sealed the fate of economic corridor as transportation corridor was arrest of Bo XiLia . Bo XiLai was chinese commerce minister and was very popular among the business community around the world. He was efficient. But the one thing that went against him was, he was loyal to Jiang ZeMin. There are currently 2 Core Leaders alive in China. Jian ZeMin and Xi JinPing. Both are rivals. And Leader of China currently is Xi JinPing. Bo XiLai rather effecient minister is now rotting in jail under corruption charges just because he is loyal to Jiang. In form of Bo china lost it’s ability to make this corridor work.

Not that China cared about it much. Especially when economy started to slow down. China wisely turned the CPEC into it’s more ambitious project of One Belt- One Road. Under which China is planning to improve infrastructure and connectivity so it’s products and be transported to Central Asia and Eastern Europe.

Nawaz Sharif who finds himself as Prime Minister of Pakistan again in 2013 realize what is happening. The CPEC in it’s current form is useless to civilian government in Pakistan. It will not create job nor will generate revenue. At max it will earn some rent in form of rail and road network. Though Pakistani military establishment understand that Chinese presence in form of People's Liberation Army on Pakistani soil and People's Liberation Army Navy in Pakistani waters will weaken it’s position in the area, they are too busy counting their fat pay cheques.

This leaves Pakistani civilan leader Nawaz Sharif in dilemma. Accepting CPEC as it is will turn Pakistan into colony of China. And refusing it will be throwing away any hope for economic development for next few decades. Not to mention fear of another revolt from Military Establishment.

China due to slowing of it’s economy is not willing to even think of any investment in Pakistan. So hopes of Pakistan are now pinned on the world’s fastest growing economy India. Nawaz Sharif used all his influence in persuading China to let India invest in Pakistan. But sadly for him, he does not enjoy such influence at home.

During 1990s Pakistan also had plan of IPI-Pipeline. An oil pipeline from Iran-Balochistan-Pakistan and into India. It would have ensured fast and cheap supply of oil from Iran to India. It would have saved millions of dollars on transportation of Oil and natural gas from sea. Also availability would have been constant. There was only one flaw though.

Pakistan was not ready for any sort of economic co-operation. It wanted India to build the pipeline from it’s own money. And pay Pakistan the rent charges. When delegation from India asked for discussion to be conducted on business investment, their request were denied.

Unwillingness of Pakistan to conduct business with India peacefully is evident from the fact that India has given Pakistan Most Favoured Nation (MFN) status in 1996 but Pakistan is yet to reciprocate.

Pakistani Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif is looking a way to make India invest in Pakistan. He has traveled great length from attending Prime Minister Modi’s swearing ceremony, presenting him saree for his mother to inviting him on his daughter’s wedding.

But words of a Prime Minister who’s notification could be refuted by Military Establishment over twitter are as hollow & short lived as bubble. Any development brought in by China Pakistan Transportation Corridor will end up freeing Balochistan from undeveloped Pakistan.